Event Title

An Analysis of Surface Cyclones Associated with Winter Power Outage Events

Presenter Information

Trevor Campbell, Meteorology

Faculty Sponsor(s)

Eric Hoffman

Abstract

UCONN has developed an electricity Outage Prediction Model (OPM), for Eversource Energy service areas in Connecticut. The initial OPM was developed for rain/wind events and a new OPM is being developed for Eversource service areas in New Hampshire and Massachusetts as well as winter events in all service territories. Outage events are defined as a 48-hour window that encompasses the significant weather that causes power outages. Thirty-seven winter outage events were identified between January 1st, 2006 and March 31st, 2018. The goal of this research is to analyze the synoptic-scale features that are associated with outage events. Winter outage events spanned from the months of October to April, with December having the highest frequency of events. A composite of cyclone tracks for each event demonstrated that lows most commonly form along the east coast and move northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. Analysis of the relationship between cyclone strength and number of outages showed that the magnitude of surface cyclones is mostly uncorrelated to the number of outages. Future work will include analyzing the upper-air conditions to develop a three-dimensional perspective of the atmosphere associated with winter power outage events.

Location

Hartman Union Building Courtroom

Start Date

5-2-2019 2:00 PM

End Date

5-2-2019 3:00 PM

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May 2nd, 2:00 PM May 2nd, 3:00 PM

An Analysis of Surface Cyclones Associated with Winter Power Outage Events

Hartman Union Building Courtroom

UCONN has developed an electricity Outage Prediction Model (OPM), for Eversource Energy service areas in Connecticut. The initial OPM was developed for rain/wind events and a new OPM is being developed for Eversource service areas in New Hampshire and Massachusetts as well as winter events in all service territories. Outage events are defined as a 48-hour window that encompasses the significant weather that causes power outages. Thirty-seven winter outage events were identified between January 1st, 2006 and March 31st, 2018. The goal of this research is to analyze the synoptic-scale features that are associated with outage events. Winter outage events spanned from the months of October to April, with December having the highest frequency of events. A composite of cyclone tracks for each event demonstrated that lows most commonly form along the east coast and move northeast into the Canadian Maritimes. Analysis of the relationship between cyclone strength and number of outages showed that the magnitude of surface cyclones is mostly uncorrelated to the number of outages. Future work will include analyzing the upper-air conditions to develop a three-dimensional perspective of the atmosphere associated with winter power outage events.